Campaign Marrative Reflection
Campaign Narrative Reflection: An Analysis of Michigan’s 10th Congressional District Introduction Michigan’s 10th Congressional District was quietly one of the more competitive. elections of the 2022 midterms. The district ended up being a narrow Republican victory by around 0.5%. I will go over the predictions, including my own, of the district and explain why they were or were not wrong, but first I would like to introduce the district. Following redistricting, Michigan’s 10th Congressional district became an open seat.
Final Reflection
Reflection Now that the elections have (mostly) concluded, I will be taking some time to reflect on the elections and my predictions in this blog post. I will go through a recap of my model and the accuracy of this model in the election, some potential hypotheses for what might have gone wrong, and finally a description of what I might change for next time. ## Summary of Model
Final Predictions
Final Predictions
Blog Post 7
Shocks and Pooled Models? In today’s blog I will briefly go over the idea of shocks as well as the final changes to my model including the potential for using a pooled model. Shocks are sudden events that may come up unexpected in an election season. In 2022, the unquestionably most impactful shock was the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v Jackson, which overturned the legal right to an abortion.
Blog Post 6
The Ground Game This week, we will delving into the ground game. To do this, I will be looking at turnout mostly along with some other aspects as well as talking about my model. The first thing I wanted to explore with turnout was to consider the common “myth” in political science that higher turnout benefits Democrats. To do this, I took a look at the Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP) data available by district from 2012 to 2020 and compared it to the actual turnout.
Blog Post 5
Week 5 - The Air War For this week’s blog, I will be delving into the concept of ad buys and how this may impact congressional races. To do this, we will be trying to build a model where we look at what impact the number of ad buys has on the eventual turnout of the race. As you will see below, we are looking at ads from the years 2006 to 2018.
Blog Post 4
Week 4 - Incumbency and Expert Predictions For this week’s blog, I am going to be looking into the reliability of expert predictions. Expert predictions have become more prevalent over time, but today we are going to be looking at expert predictions from the most recent midterm elections. To do so, we will be taking a deep dive into expert predictions in the 2018 midterm elections through visualization. Because expert predictions are at the district level, I took a look at expert predictions at the district level in the mapping.
Blog Post 3
Polling trends and predicting elections This week, we will be diving into polling and using polling along with the economic fundamentals from last week to update my model and predicitons for the 2022 elections. However, before I get into the choices I have made in my own predictions for the election, I am going to be taking a deeper dive into some of the decisions that went into two of the most well known models that exist for election predictions.
Blog Post 2
This is the second post of a series of weekly blog posts leading into the 2022 Midterm elections!
Blog Post 1
This is the first post of a series of weekly blog posts leading into the 2022 Midterm elections!